Election Eve Prediction

photo of Nate Silver
The Next Great Liberal Bete Noire?

No, not THAT prediction. There’s been quite enough of that already.

No, what struck me (enough to toss down a “you heard it here first” marker by writing this post) when seeing the tremendous kerfuffle over Nate Silver and his predictive model of the Presidential race, was what’ll happen after this election, if/when the mood of the country shifts.

My prediction? A lot of the same people who are currently cheering Silver as a truth-teller and GOP fiction-slayer will HATE him, the instant the country’s mood turns conservative. Why? Because they’re partisan fans (to be generous), and Silver’s a statistician and odds-analyst. What he does right now is heavily favoring Obama because that’s what the math tells Silver is correct.

But the next time Silver’s model shows a conservative/GOP tilt to an election, he won’t sugar-coat or spin it. He won’t try to second-guess or “unskew” it, because Silver is not a partisan and he’s especially not a fan of any particular politician – at least not enough of a fan to let it cloud his professional judgment. Nate’s a numbers guy. So the result will be that he’ll continue telling the country whatever his model tells him is likely…and a lot of the Obama fans currently cheering Silver will cry “betrayal” or at least “he’s lost his edge.”

You heard it here first.

.

.

.

.

.

.

Oh, and as long as I’m doing predictions, my SWAG for tomorrow is: Obama 294, Romney 244. Let’s see how wrong I am. Heh.

11/7 Update: happy to have been among the unders. Final total not yet in because Florida still isn’t official, but assuming it stays in Obama column, 323 is a decisive victory. :o)

One thought on “Election Eve Prediction

  1. Personally, I will only have a problem with him if I get the feeling that his data is pointing in the other direction only because he has developed some sense of faux balance, à la PolitiFact. Otherwise, I’ll be cool with his analysis even when/if it shows teabaggers gaining an advantage. But I agree, many of the mediocre third-rate minds of the left (the @owillis, the @JeffersonObama and @Shoq types) will have a problem.

Comments are closed.